Yes, we went thru an interesting week, and possibly the first really big scare after reaching 101. We did reach 76, which was our CR price, just around the time when CR shares were issued - so that many would have thought was in one way expected and nothing to be alarmed, it may just playing technical. But then this one to 66 could be slightly different. Or is it?
One thing in favour that this may be a blip and part and parcel of how WC8 has traded over last few months. Even when I was picking up my shares for last phase, there was a big drop towards early 30s, but then it came back. A number of episodes like that. Even when we reached around 93, one big drop towards 67, but that didn't stop it going to 101. So if we look at this pattern, then one may think its fine, WC8 always plays like this.
But can this be different? Possibly, even though probability may not be high, its always best to have an open mind, or at least I think like that.
In many of my posts across different threads, I have mentioned how difficult is to get quantify fundamentals and think of a number for market cap. Many quantify, sometimes successfully. But many others fail. Both SYA and CXO have lost around 85% of their value from their highs. The $100 is just $15 now. If they reach their highs from here, it would be 6 bags. LTR is another example. In one day it moves from 125 to 250 gaining billions in market cap. Another day few months later it drops from 300 to 150, now losing billions of dollar. In just one day, with no real fundamental change. So if we can't quantify several billions of dollars, what chance 1 billion, or 100 million.
WC8 had reached over a billion when was exiting. Its a round number, comes to the eye of many. Also I had written, I felt a good drill result may already have been factored in. So to make a big jump, possibly a spectacular result was required. Last results were confirmation of the path but nothing spectacular - like out of the way. Hence I feel, it did not excite many. Also Li sector is in turmoil. When one is big, chances of getting affected happens. But AZS has not been affected till now. Also it did not stop us to reach 101. So not a big factor till now. So for me, an indecisive state - at least for me, I don't know.
Personally, as I mentioned, I did buy some at 68. But not big. Roughly only 10% of what I used to hold before exiting, but I was holding quite big. Reason being I am still not sure. As I have mentioned I am not a fundamental player, though I follow fundamentals very closely. I am a trend player - for me its important that the trend is up. Picking bottom is not my play. I had written if 70 does not look like holding I will exit. I had also written, it needs to get to mid 80s - if its looking like going there, I will add more on the way. It failed to cross 80 on Friday. That I felt was not very good, but it may require few attempts, let see.
So what may happen next week? The most familiar territory for WC8 for last several weeks has been to play in 80s. Last couple of days its playing in 70s. I feel it needs to go to 80s. Downside, needs to hold mid 60s. I am not a gap player, but some do - we did jump from 46 to open on 54 next day, touched 53 and since then stayed above. A good announcement could help. A takeover much more. Lets hope to have some positive action this week. . For those interested how stock is tracking against other Lithium stocks or who hold multiple Lithium stocks, I do a Weekly Report across 96 ASX Li stocks. It has got Weekly/Yearly data how stocks are tracking. I also have commentary across general markets and sector. Those just holding specific stocks, it may not be relevant, so please ignore.
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