Banter and general comments, page-55

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Macquarie has rated Origin “outperform” and put fair value at $9.30 per share. It said Origin’s circumstances have “materially improved” since the February deal, pointing to the boost to earnings at the energy markets business from the coal price cap and the extension of Eraring, which is now profitable but was loss making then.It estimated the break-up value of Origin at between $9.01 and $10.92 a share by the end of June 2024, and said the cost of breaking the binding transaction deal of about $151 million is “trivial” compared to the proportional enterprise value of about $20 billion.“We believe there is evidence a bump is needed and lift out target price back to our NPV $9.36,” Macquarie said, adding that the downside risk for investors is if the deal fails at 50¢ per share.