For my own interest, I have sought to overlay the short position...

For my own interest, I have sought to overlay the short position over the last three years with price sensitive announcements.

Appreciate this is a pretty crude alignment but some observations that might be helpful/obvious or completely useless:

1) 3 separate placements over the last three years resulted in unwinding of short positions on 3 occasions by up to 75% of total shorts (8% short down to ~2% short last dec/jan)
2) The placement on 26 April 2023 saw reduction in short position to a base of approximately 4%, which then increased to above 7% before the CRL on August 4 2023
3) December 23 entitlement offer and placement again sees short position unwinding down to ~2% and below for a sustained period, in the background of a slew of positive announcements, including GG buying and invitation of FDA to resubmit BLA
4) Even the rise to 3% shorts is still low compared to range of 6-10% shorts over the last 3 years, noting that prior to the August 2023 CRL, the % shorts was approx 8%
5) As we are entering the period, between 2 and 6 months, where a decision from the FDA may be announced as per the great summary from @Anjo-Roch, I am curious as to why the % short isnt much higher? I have no doubt that as we head towards Jan 25, given our current cashburn, absent any announcement (FDA response, partnership etc) the % shorts will increase in anticipation of another raise, but I wonder whether the current low percentage is, as of today, a positive indication of the chances of a successful outcome or on the flipside, reflective or the risk of going short this time around

It will be interesting to see how this plays out and indeed whether these observations are completely meaningless. Either way i am keen to continue to monitor changes to the short position over the next few months.

V