Agree. The first wake up call, IMO, will come in July 4C when investors get spoon-fed Ryoncil take up figures - apparently many cannot imagine them on their own - do some more modest mathematics and come to the conclusion, similar to yourself, that MSB already approaching neutrality in accrued earnings, if not cash flows quite as fast. Boring account receivables, insurance company payment schedules and the like will soon be regular discussion territory on MSB threads - but good points of contest over revenue and cash flows to have for the company and investors!
In analysts' defence the higher pricing caught everyone unaware on the Insto' side
(of course many MSB HC pundits were not surprised and knew it all along
) and in my opinion spooked and raised execution risk for many professional players and weighed on the stock price - its unpopular to say, but whilst shorts certainly a significant influence, mathematically there has irrefutably has been a lot of long position selling in Q1/2 as well - the early episode at $3 and high $2 above the last $2.50 cap raise perhaps not surprisingly. Some compelling take up figures in July (or any update in advance) should settle those concerns and readjust some thinking on the shorting side, the continued building of which below $2 surprises me - around $3 I can at least understand some shorting, below $2? Risky.
Shorters (I have been one in the past, in Tesla particularly) mainly short stocks ahead of predictable cap-raises, blatant over-valuation, often overlooked convertible note hedging or likely index removals. MSB arguably was over-valued given its state of play at a $4 billion cap recently (I certainly sold a lot of stock - and also bought it back far too quickly); ASX200 removal it ain't and whilst Silviu's talent at raising capital c'est magnifique, any cap-raise hopes are a mis-direction by them IMO, and clearly your opinion.
I suspect there is a lot of continued programed momentum/trend trading execution from both shorts and long selling and at this level its a mistake IMO. Eeking a few coins from the back of the sofa to buy more MSB here is something I am doing and something most MSB investors over the years are familiar with.
(20min delay)