It was tax loss seling for June 30 that knocked the price down...

It was tax loss seling for June 30 that knocked the price down to 61c - that happened to several other stocks at the same time, all of which were down a long way for the financial year. In a year where there were big profits and record highs in other stocks, it allowed people to take profits elsewhere and realise their loss on MSB and therefore pay no net Capital Gains Tax, but reduce their exposure to a dangerously overbought global market. I know people who were selling MSB above $1 in April and May to realise losses, with a view to buying back in the new financial year after 1 July. People who delayed taking the loss were hit with a deadline on June 30, and then they just sold for whatever price they could get - they didn't care what the price was as long as they could access the tax loss and then buy back later at close to their selling price. And that's why we started to get a strong bounce back from the start of July.

"Fundamentals" haven't changed much in the past few months. Analyst share price targets for MESO in the US are not moving much, and are double the more than double the current share price (median $5.66 and average $8.20, with the high $23).

There has been a delay in the filing of the BLA, which still does not appear to have been finally submitted yet, and that is holding back the share price into the current range and is making it very hard to break through $1.00. In the absence of a big announcement, the price is stuck in a range and the recent low of 88.5c on Friday was exactly the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rise from 78c (recent low closing price on Sep 30) to $1.055 (recent high close on 10 Oct). So the move up today was a combination of the rise in the US market on Friday night and the completion of the recent corrective down move.

The apparent delay in the BLA also probably delays the FDA's final decision on approving new trials such as back pain and a potential accelerated approval for heart. The FDA clearly wants to see all the answers to the CRL addressed and then maybe we'll see some progress on other fronts. That delay in the BLA filing is 1 month so far, and hopefully it will be completed soon - if there is no hope of filing soon then MSB should provide a market update under continuous disclosure as to why the September "expectation" was not met and what conditions precedent need to be filled before the BLA is submitted. The ASX rules state:

3.1 Once an entity is or becomes aware of any information concerning it that a reasonable person would expect to have a material effect on the price or value of the entity’s securities, the entity must immediately tell ASX that information.

It is possible that the price sensitive BLA is very close to being submitted and that the lawyers have advised MSB to say nothing either to avoid upsetting the BLA's process or it meets one or more of the exceptions below:

3.1A Listing rule 3.1 does not apply to particular information while each of the following requirements is satisfied in relation to the information: 3.1A.1 One or more of the following 5 situations applies:
 It would be a breach of a law to disclose the information;
 The information concerns an incomplete proposal or negotiation;
 The information comprises matters of supposition or is insufficiently definite to warrant disclosure;
 The information is generated for the internal management purposes of the entity; or
 The information is a trade secret; and
3.1A.2 The information is confidential and ASX has not formed the view that the information has ceased to be confidential; and
3.1A.3 A reasonable person would not expect the information to be disclosed.

The threat of legal action by lawyers acting for new shareholders who are effectively suing old shareholders for statements made by the company at the time they bought their shares has also gradually resulted in MSB saying less and less in its releases, but that doesn't relieve MSB of announcing when a price sensitive event occurs like the lodging of their BLA.

The positive fundamentals recently are the reduction in operating cash burn (now down to $14.3m per quarter) and cash on hand at the end of the quarter was US$85.5 million after raising gross proceeds of US$45 million in a private placement in August 2022 (ie another 6 quarters of operating cash burn), with up to an additional US$40 million available to be drawn down from existing financing facilities subject to certain milestones. So that calculates as up to 8.8 quarters of operating cash burn as long as the milestones are met and the extra debt is available. Some have declared that if the conditions to draw down the additional debt aren't met by 31 Dec then it disappears. I would note that debt conditions have changed by mutual agreement in the past and it is totally in the power of the lenders to extend this deadline if they still want to lend money at attractive rates, and furthermore it is possible for MSB to negotiate with other lenders, which they have done in the past.

In the absence of new announcements, the MSB share price continues to meander in the ranges set since June 30. Charts are a good way of observing human behaviour and its effect on share prices until we get the next big price sensitive announcement. Fundamentals have been useless in predicting the recent moves up and down in the share price as they haven't changed much (hence your question @JB1975). My read is that now the Fibonacci low is in, the line of least resistance is to drift back up near $1 as long as the rest of the world doesn't go crazy. We closed back above th 50 day and 100 day moving averages today and the 200 day average is not far away at 98c. None of these are likely to decisively break unless we get a big announcement. Trading volumes in the past month have been desultory (as I noted in recent notes) and the market has lost interest in MSB. Even the shorts have packed up - the net shorts have hardly changed since 11 October - rising by a lousy 365k or 0.05% of the company's capital over the past 3 weeks.

The Golden Cross occurs when the 50 day average share price crosses up through the 200 day, and I have been saying that could happen in the next 2 months - if it does happen it would be a great signal for a lot of chartists, and it might coincide with the announcement of the final BLA submission and big volume returning to trading.

So, nothing has really changed fundamentally for the past few months, we are still waiting for BLA submission, partnering agreements and new trials to be designed and funded, while cash has been burnt and then topped up again through a placement. Yet as @JB1975 notes, we have seen big moves in the share price - hopefully this explains why we had the big fall and subsequent rise and why the price is currently stuck in a range with low volumes. It is well placed for an explosive move upwards if we get one of these potential announcements, but until then it is likely to remain quiet.