Leading up to each AGM Mesoblast have historically announced...

Leading up to each AGM Mesoblast have historically announced separate news, generally good, on or days before the AGM. Last year this was the AGVHD long term data results, 2021 it was the refinanced oak tree loan and in 2020 it was the Novartis deal. Perhaps the news fell on these days coincidentally but more likely, at least for the non-price sensitive news, the announcements were held back for weeks or months and announced just before the AGM to encourage excitement and provide a sense of progress.

I can't help but think perhaps the same will occur in the next week or so. My initial thought was the announcement of the interim Crohn's fistula results recently shared here. Amy released this results in early October so they may be holding the results announcement back until this coming week. The only other reasons I can think of for not sharing the results already would be that they're not out our results, this could be mis founded but I cant find any real confirmation in the article or clinical trial site on who the sponsor is and if they were actually our cells used. Or perhaps Mesoblast are waiting for the 12 month follow up and trial completion as I note these results were for six months of follow up only. Alternatively, they may announce the extension of the Oaktree loan, results of the heart failure meeting (If this occurs in time) and of course funding.

Its no secret that Mesoblast run out of useable capital at the end of the year at current burn levels and that confirmation on funding is the most crucial information currently sought by shareholders and is the biggest burden on the current share price. I have no doubt that a key objective for Meso would be to have funding arrangements in place by the AGM to shift SH sentiment and save the needless funding questions on the day. Not to mention time is of the essence. Mesoblast have been dropping subtle hints for months about potential strategic partnerships and collaborations and recently in the AGM report confirmed board approval and plans to move forward with a CHF partnership initiatives. This seems the most plausible avenue as CHF is significantly progressed, proven effective, would fetch strong interest and funding and would speed up the currently stalled development. Any deal but particularly one worth potentially $200-300M up front providing 2-3 years of cash run way without continued dilution will be a god send at this time and would alleviate significant share holder pressure and make the shorts cover on market. No doubt the share price will start to recover and potentially gap back up close or passed pre CRL levels.

The benefits of any decent strategic partnership, even one formed in a relatively weak position, are obvious and to relate to my early comments I believe there will be a strong push to have funding acquired pre AGM. I believe that if Meso are to raise though are CR this will be completed prior to the AGM as they have more control over this outcome and will have the ability to complete this pretty much on their own time frame. If we approach the AGM without comment on funding I feel there is a much greater chance of a partnership/monetisation deal as the company has far less control over the deal completion timings and the potential for this to drag out closer to the new year is much more plausible.

These are just my thoughts and reading of the tea leaves, potentially connecting dots that don’t exist but it can be fun to speculate.