AA in adults would significantly impact valuations. Current...

AA in adults would significantly impact valuations. Current market cap is $A987m ($US650m based on MSB price) or $US660m based on ADR price. Assume market P E of 40; than means current mkt cap is assuming annual net earnings of only $US16.5m. If the old Gross Margin quoted some years ago of 60% still holds, then you would only need sales of around $US43m to achieve that net profit. That's only about 20% of the potential annual demand for kids with SR-aGvHD. The annual demand (according to SI) in kids is 500 patients and he's indicating a price of $US400-450k each - which is sales of over $US212m. So only 20% of the paediatric market is currently being priced in and nothing for adult or sales in Europe.Adults market is said by SI to be worth 5x kids market in US.It would be sensible to defer the spending on the adult trial to preserve cash if there's a good chance of adult AA based on the paediatric approval. To get that adult AA, Meso might need to at least start recruiting for the trial, or have some early surrogate endpoints met such as 28-day response etc. If FDA has given Meso a strong signal that paediatric approval is likely after resubmission of the BLA and that AA in adults was likely after the paediatric approval (if conditions are met) then I would defer the adult trial.Once there's an approval in aGvHD, it will give the whole platform credibility, and we might then start to see some valuation creeping in for other indications like Heart and Back Pain.

ET

Aloha.