'Are you trying to tell me you know the outcome because you have...

'Are you trying to tell me you know the outcome because you have inside information ??'

No

'If my opinion ....OPINION.... is wrong ,so yours and near everyones.'

Maybe

'50.000 posts on this forum about Monash .
Are they all correct ??'

Probably not.

'Never forget if there was not stupid ones like me about , then the word genius will be useless .'

If you say so.

All I'm saying arion is that it's not about being right or wrong, it's about putting forward 'theories' on what you believe might be going on BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA. I judge those 'theories' on the basis of their coherency. Some here, including you, have made some comments worth thinking about. But you are right! No one knows what's 'really' going on.