When linked to a governmental subsidies program, which applies strict confidentiality clauses ( to break those would risk eligibility for the funds ), the signs towards a positive uptake of the technology need to be derived from circumstantial developments, provided one aims to invest before the rest of the main market ( that is how the wealth is created and we all know so ).
The risk percentage accompanying such an investment decision will have to be mitigated by those circumstantial points mentioned above.
These are in our case :
1, Being short listed for the ALDP.
2, having submitted successfully the RFP with the support of ARUP, which oversaw the DFT.
3, we were never told the results of the DFT, interestingly though such results will have to be part of that RFP submsission to government. Why keep this from the market? As I see it, it would generate unfair advantage towards other applicants within the program. Governmental programs are very strict about this issue, even though internally the decision making is already close to conclusion. ( in my humble opinion, those at the DPI in charge would have made their decision prior to the public offer to all applicants, see initial visits of officials at our pilot plant, see invitation of ESI representatives at the launch of the ALDP, see ESI being the only public company stating the fact to be short listed ).
4, Securing our own brown coal access down the line last year in acquiring of EL5119 in agreement with Mecrus resources.
5, Commitment of our first Asian partner K-coal of a 5% uptake in case of gorvernmental support for the CDP. This conditional commitment is in my opinion a precursor of larger commitments from the same and other Asian representatives.
6, The timing of overseas travel of our management securing that very commitment from China, India and Korea and Japan. The flight itinerary of management is an interesting read when putting it into direct context with the setup of the ALDP and subsequent short listing approval.
7, Board changes after the expiry of the former res 6 indicating the conclusion of milestones first outlined a year earlier within the description of responsibilities for the former GM, namely achievement of DFT and initialisation of CDP funding and construction process.
8, Port extensions of Hastings and commitment from local and federal government towards lignite export for Vic.
9, MOU with LY, look forward to August to see possible connection between AGL ( which interestingly took LY over at the time we became front runner for the drying technology and the creation of the ALDP, in my opinion ) and ECT.
10, Your ridiculed capping efforts pointing towards stagnant price at low levels. Speculation should have taken the price higher already. Whether one believes that somebody always chooses to sell down once sentiment recovers or whether one is siding with a capping effort to achieve low entry levels and negotiating advantages for parties involved is probably secondary and will have no influence on the share price performance once funding is announced. What it does though reflect is the early buy in signals usually preceding such active and exciting times for a stock when 2 years of planning towards CDP are coming to a pointy end.
Speculative investing is all about connecting those points mentioned above and deciding whether to commit due to the possible upside. I do not judge your hesitation to invest at this point in time, whereas I, personally, prefer to increase my holdings by several 100% rather than 50 to 80% when buying in after confirmation where timing becomes very tricky as one would not want to buy in too early before price might have cooled off or too late before next appreciation has already begun.
We are evidently representing 2 different investment models, nothing wrong with either of them. To call connecting de-risking points within a speculative investment as wearing rose coloured glasses is probably simplifying and polarising the matter unnecessarily.
ESI Price at posting:
0.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)