I'm not buying the conspiracy theories behind Bota losing the...

I'm not buying the conspiracy theories behind Bota losing the BARDA contract.

1. BARDA has ceased contracts before for America-centric companies. Its not new or unique.

2. Lani's two future rivals, Fludase and Favipiravir, have interesting backgrounds. The former is owned by a bunch of Chinese Americans whose offices were raided by the FBI a year or two ago. The latter is Japanese owned by a subsidiary of Fuji Films. At this point in time, they still have their US govt funding (in the hundreds of millions).

I've said it once and I'll say it again. If you had to quit government funding for one of either Lani, Fludase or Favipiravir, Lani most likely would get the chop because:

(1) Commercial potential - the more commercial potential, less reason for tax payers to subsidize it. BARDA need only look at RP's lani/inavir slide in his recent presentation to feel fully justified ceasing funding; and

(2) New Mechanism of Action - Lani loses this hands down.

As an economist and bean counter, BARDA's decisions makes brilliant sense, unfortunately.