Originally posted by ralom
Surely the market as usual looks forward and much of what you say is factored in .
Buying at these levels even with dividend cut will give a good yield .
Tell me where else in the market to invest to get yield and growth .
IMHO best to be market weight with the banks not over not under
Correct - most of this is already factored in at least with institutional holders. With retail holders I think there is some further scope for downward pressure on the price if the dividend is cut and again when it trades ex dividend (i.e. may drop by more than the dividend when it goes ex dividend). What is not factored in is any guidance they give for 2019. I see no compelling reason to buy at these levels - my suggestion would be wait for the annual report and re-assess then.
You asked the question: Tell me where else in the market to invest to get yield and growth?
I suggest that the question is not well founded. NAB may have high yield but certainly has not had growth. On the graph above NAB has fallen from ~$35 to around ~$25 and I guess paid about ~$10 dividends in the same time - so breakeven at best but actually negative once inflation and tax are factored in.
I find your last comment surprising. My experience over the last 6 odd months of watching the banking royal commission is that almost daily I have been reminded that the banks are not a good investment presently and there are better companies to invest in. I guess if you haven't lightened your exposure to banks in that time, you may as well wait for the annual report as well now and re-assess then.
Originally posted by ipy
Is the 1.1B loss related to part of the restructuring charge of $500 million to $800 million announced in the first half of 2018? If so, their 1H18 cash earning is 16% lower (530m) vs 1H17. Excluding restructuring related cost, their 1H18 cash earning is flat vs 1H17 ie: 3,289m
I would guess that the $1.1B does include the restructuring cost, but it is just from that table on the ABC website (i.e. consensus forecast) so I cannot be sure.
(20min delay)