Bargain, page-97

That dividend is clearly unsustainable and will be reduced, maybe as early as this Thursday.  If that occurs, further selling pressure will arise because plenty of people are just holding banks for the dividend and don't bother looking at fundamentals.  Also a number of people will have decided to hold on, get the dividend and sell, so further pressure on ex dividend date.  If the profit goes down (which is expected - $1.1B) the share price must surely go down as well. If NAB manages to beat expectations and has a rosy forward outlook, the SP will go up, if not then down. BTW if interest rates go up (they are) return from shares must go up: either the profit must go up (not happening for NAB) or the share price must go down. Looking at the 26% decline, I would estimate that 16% is due to expected lower profit and the remainder due to market correction.  If you read the link I posted above (ABC website) you may learn some other hurdles facing the banks.  No-one knows the future, but look at the SP graph

Which way do you think it is heading? Any signs of a slowdown / turnaround?  Then add in overall market jitters.  If there is a major correction (which must now be at least a possibility), how do you think the banks will fare?