Just came across this thread. Given I'm a primary producer and grow in excess of 10,000 tonne of Barley a year, I'll try to explain how I see it. China have obviously imposed a 70-odd% tariff on all Australian Barley which made the Barley price drop to $240 per tonne, from $290. Please note that $240 a tonne is nearly our 10 year average for Barley sales. In the previous seasons we have been spoilt with high Barley prices driven largely by the Eastern States drought meaning that Farmers in the East had to buy Barley from WA to feed their livestock.. this added an extra demand unit to the balance of the Barley market, thus a price push.
Where to from here given the tariffs? China took somewhere in the vicinity of 4million tonne of Malt Barley from the Australian Market, thus leaving a demand shortfall for our locally produced Barley.. China will need to look to other countries in order to fill this void in their Malt market as a result of pulling away from Australia. Say for example China turn to 'Country X' and import 4million tonne from 'Country X', then 'Country Y' that use to import their Barley from 'Country X' now need to look to another Market to source their Barley given China has taken up the Barley they use to buy from 'Country X'. The long of the short is that I anticipate a global reshuffle of who imports from who, at the end of the day the Global Demand for Barley has not changed... it would be a completely different scenario if China found a substitute for Barley and therefore leaving a severe shortfall of demand in the global Barley Demand, but for the minute that isn't the case.
In summary, look for a reshuffle of Barley imports and exports and don't be alarmed that the price is off $50 per tonne from last year. Thankfully the rains have come for our Eastern State farmers and therefore they wont need WA Barley. $240 a tonne for Barley is still very sustainable for Primary Producers.
