Barrel Costs, page-43

Also dont forget there is a $5 difference between the current spot price and the Nov contracts... The spot price is more indicitive of current inventories then longer supply and demand realities...  

Although it is a good leading indicator..

I think its better to focus on the area highlighted in red box on the attached graph as a better indicator of more normal behaviour and trends... Im not saying it cant fall further, but these more recent falls where all chanted as the end of oil prices as well and they quickly turned around..