According to the IEA 8% of world oil produced by Canada and Deep...

According to the IEA 8% of world oil produced by Canada and Deep Sea are at risk with $80 oil

Only 4% of LTO Light Tight Oil aka US Shale producers are above the $80 mark......analysts have also noted that for many shale producers, a large chunk of production costs — acquiring acreage, contracting wells, etc. — have already been spent. As a result, the more important figure might be “half-cycle” production costs. which analysts at Citi last week pegged at between $37 to $45 a barrel.

To counter your argument..im not saying your wrong... But Iraq is falling by the day to ISIS which is not being reported because the international media is putting its journalists in the safely guarded Turkey border where they can film Kaboni without being beheaded or bombed...

The next front for ISIS is the Saudi Border...what effect do you think that might have on oil. 30000 Saudi troops are already on the border.. If the biggest oil producer in the world falls or even comes under attack..I cant see oil staying high no matter what comes out their mouth.

ISIS also controls the area less then 10 miles from Baghdad airport and much of the range where the airport can be targeted... Military aircraft should be fine due to steep approach angles, but airliners are at serious risk of small arms.. ........"
Ramadi, officials in Anbar warn that they are losing their grip on the city to a highly organized and disciplined insurgency that has surrounded military bases and put a choke hold on trade from Jordan” The Wall Street Journal reported, “effectively controlling movements of goods and people in the region.”
Apparently, ISIS does not need to take Baghdad in order reshape global geopolitics. The capture of Ramadi would reportedly have a significant impact on the global oil market and allow ISIS to virtually cut off most Iraqi trade to the West."

I dont think ISIS will try to take Baghdad at all because its heavily defended and they couldnt rule 7 million defiant people... So its a game of taking strategic

ISIS has publicly stated many times that Saudi is the Crown they are after... it will be much harder then Iraq or Syria which already had poor security .  

Kuwait and Qatar will also be at huge risk...

Hell the  Saudis might even cop Sanctions for arming ISIS..now that would be huge

Too many unknowns right now to be predicting anything when it comes to oil...

One things for sure the players will create volatility and profit..