re: ncm -chart for those interested Realistically a take over...

re: ncm -chart for those interested Realistically a take over will be in cash/script! 7 NCM shares for every 2 Newmont shares will probably do the trick! Newmont do not normally take risks but would be reactive to another party attempting to take over NCM. Newmont want boddington and would be loath to have Barrick or Anglo get a controlling interest in boddington. Newmont already have the large copper/gold project in Batu Hiju and know first hand what sort of a cash cow these projects are. NCM have 28M oz of reserves or 40M gold equivelent. Newmont are depleting their reserves (around 100M oz) by about 9M oz per year. NCM would be a good fit. Newmont paid AUD$3B for Normandy which was a lemon. The Yandal sites had bonds against them and only one of the 3 is still 0perational (Jundee). The NZ site is also up for sale. Normandy reserves were about 4M oz and the gold price at the time was US$250ish. NCM at AUD$5B (10% premium) is a screaming steal. The risks involved with NCM is whether Telfer will deliver as promised! Boddington will be larger than the super pit (800K to 1M oz per year) and have a mine life in excess of 20 years. Newmont have been doing all the testing and trials in Nevada on the boddington ore and were expected to make a decision last December on whether they would proceed to a feasibility study. Having left Newmont late last year, I cannot confirm whether Newmont have gone to the next stage at boddington but I can tell you that the plans were to try and get NCM's 22% and offer Anglo their 50% equity in the super pit for Anglo's 33% of boddington. Newmont are loath to have another mining operation where they do not have the controlling interest!

I would not be shorting NCM at the moment, because the big 3 are on the prow for a good fit operation with plenty of reserves! Newmont have Pierre Lasonde and he is very financially savvy and has all along said gold was headed over US$400. He was the reason Newmont took over his hedge fund and Normandy in a 3 way deal! Very smart financial operator and is in control of the Newmont finances to boot!