BAS Chart, page-1062

Oh well, who said its easy to find the right value for a company?
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Lot of discussions going on as to what should be the right market cap.
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My experience is that one aspect finding the right value is futile - because its not easy. If someone is producing, then inflows and outflows can be seen. But a majority of times it is the "potential" which is also included in the market cap. And it is this potential which is not easy to quantify.
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And why is potential important? Although BAS has income/expenditure, there are thousands of companies with no income and hundred times more market cap then BAS. If we don't take potential into play, we can't even talk about finding a fair value.
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And how does market find fair value? Its very poor in it. I do track Uranium/Lithium/REE stocks. Just in last one year, some of the stocks have moved within days 50%. And not small stocks. Talking of big stocks whose market cap has changed in billions without any major announcement. All this is related to potential. And potential is related to sentiment, greed and fear. Eg LTR was trading $1.25 for long time time. Someone made an offer. Next day it became $2.50. No other change. Market cap increased by number of billions. Why were people not able to get right value without the offer? Because its not easy.
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Another thing around quantifying potential is because it is like - beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder. Since very difficult to quantify, one person (holder) will look from one angle and get to a figure, another person from another angle (non-holder) and get a figure. Chances are both are right - from their perspective. So some here are not looking at potential, or do not consider potential to be high etc and come with a figures. Others do look at potential because that's what we do for every stock and come with a figure. Its obvious the two numbers will not match.
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So I know I will not be able to quantify the market cap. Sometimes we use comparison with others to get some idea. But potential - like future expansion, major gas discovery etc not easy to quantify. That does not mean they are not part of current market cap - otherwise as I said we can't even talk this topic of market cap and fair value for stocks with no revenue.
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Anyway, I know its not easy to come to agreement to that. What I try to do is see if I am comfortable, using number of factors. I could be wrong but that's the risk I take. I still feel the risk/reward from here is good. As I have said previously, my heads are just over 9, oppies now getting below 2. I didn't expect for oppies to touch 1.5. I picked up some at 1.7 and small number at 1.6. Another few times this happens, my average could get towards 1.8 or so. My reasoning is that there are 16 months left. At some stage there is a chance that sun many shine again at BAS. And I don't need much. Even if it gets to mid to high teens I could at least double from here. If it goes higher - maybe a few multiples. If it doesn't work out - I may get some time to exit at half my outlay. At tis stage it may look daunting that we can reach there. But watching the trading, I am optimistic. We have now traded 7 days below 10c. Average volume? around 700k per day. Many are same buys and sells as can be seen in broker reports. Average 20% hand changes. So 140k shares. Which is around $13k per day. Lets make it $20k. So in 7 trading days around $100 to $150 k has changed hands, but market cap has moved by around $4m. Doesn't seem right, isn't it? Anyway that is my logic and as I keep repeating I could be wrong. Also, anything can go wrong, so please dyor. All the best.