basic calculations

Just jotted down some back of an envelope calculations for what I think QBE fair value should be based on their FY guidance. This is not even taking into account the almost 10% dividend. I'm new to researching this, so apologies if any of the numbers are off, and please let me know.

Forecasting FY $15 billion NEP and 11-14% insurance profit margin.

* Pessimistic case - misses both FY NEP and margin targets, AUD appreciates

NEP - $US14 billion
Margin - 10%
Insurance profit = $US1.4 billion
Profit after Tax @ 20% = $US1.12 billion
In $AU @ $1.10 exchange rate = $1.02 billion

Priced on historic PE ratio of 11.2 to 16.9 = $11.4 - $17.2 billion
Share price of $9.88 - $14.9

* Optimistic case - hits NEP target and top end of margin target, AUD depreciates slightly

NEP - $15 billion
Margin - 14%
Insurance profit = $2.1 billion
Profit after tax @ 20% = $1.68 billion
In $AU @ 0.98 exchange rate = $1.71 billion

Priced on historic PE ratio of 11.2 to 16.9 = $19.1 - $28.9 billion
Share price of $16.55 - $25.15

* Mid-range case - just below NEP target, middle of margin range, exchange rate stable and PE of 14.

NEP - $14.5 billion
Margin - 12.5%
Profit = $1.81 billion
Profit after tax @20% = $1.45
In $AU @ 1.05 = $1.38 billion

Mid-range PE of 14 gives market cap. = $19.3 billion
Share price of $16.72