Just jotted down some back of an envelope calculations for what I think QBE fair value should be based on their FY guidance. This is not even taking into account the almost 10% dividend. I'm new to researching this, so apologies if any of the numbers are off, and please let me know.
Forecasting FY $15 billion NEP and 11-14% insurance profit margin.
* Pessimistic case - misses both FY NEP and margin targets, AUD appreciates
NEP - $US14 billion
Margin - 10%
Insurance profit = $US1.4 billion
Profit after Tax @ 20% = $US1.12 billion
In $AU @ $1.10 exchange rate = $1.02 billion
Priced on historic PE ratio of 11.2 to 16.9 = $11.4 - $17.2 billion
Share price of $9.88 - $14.9
* Optimistic case - hits NEP target and top end of margin target, AUD depreciates slightly
NEP - $15 billion
Margin - 14%
Insurance profit = $2.1 billion
Profit after tax @ 20% = $1.68 billion
In $AU @ 0.98 exchange rate = $1.71 billion
Priced on historic PE ratio of 11.2 to 16.9 = $19.1 - $28.9 billion
Share price of $16.55 - $25.15
* Mid-range case - just below NEP target, middle of margin range, exchange rate stable and PE of 14.
NEP - $14.5 billion
Margin - 12.5%
Profit = $1.81 billion
Profit after tax @20% = $1.45
In $AU @ 1.05 = $1.38 billion
Mid-range PE of 14 gives market cap. = $19.3 billion
Share price of $16.72
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$17.16 |
Change
0.130(0.76%) |
Mkt cap ! $25.58B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$17.20 | $17.20 | $17.13 | $1.382M | 80.38K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
10 | 1108 | $17.14 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$17.16 | 200 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
5 | 410 | 17.140 |
6 | 1968 | 17.130 |
9 | 2903 | 17.120 |
7 | 3171 | 17.110 |
6 | 4030 | 17.100 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
17.160 | 393 | 5 |
17.170 | 1173 | 6 |
17.180 | 1265 | 6 |
17.190 | 1552 | 6 |
17.200 | 1619 | 8 |
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