Given its a lazy Sunday night, and that no one at Fosters or for that matter any broker can be bothered to do any work, I put together a v basic financial model for a full financial year of production from BNU and Blair Atholl. This is all based on publically available info from their last investor presentation, and some very conservative assumptions about margins.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 0 Pricing US$m 1 Market Cap 84.0 2 3 Production mtpa 4 Blair Athol (Australia - Thermal) 2.0 5 BNU (Mongolia - Coking) 1.5 6 Total 3.5 7 8 Margin US$/t 9 Blair Athol (Australia - Thermal) 26 10 BNU (Mongolia - Coking) 32 11 12 Cashflow before interest US$ 13 Blair Athol (Australia - Thermal) 52.0 14 BNU (Mongolia - Coking) 48.0 15 100.0 16 17 Interest cost 18 Principal (US$m) 129.0 19 Interest cost 12.50% 20 Cash cost (US$m) 16.13 21 22 Metrics 23 Cash flow after interest 83.88 24 Mkt Cap/CF 1.00
Now this is obv not an EV/EBITDA multiple, as we can't forget about the debt.......... but at the same time I'm not sure EV/EBITDA is really the right metric to use for a company that is generating this much cashflow and that will be able to pay down debt so fast - if they want to or if Bond holders will allow them to !!
Anyway - bear in mind this is a model based on only really what they have in the bag volumes wise....... plenty of huge upside to come from production volumes as new pits at BNU come on stream and hopefully as BA surprises on the upside.
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