phase 2? lynas isn't even allowed to test the lamp atm. even...

phase 2? lynas isn't even allowed to test the lamp atm. even phase 1 is a dream of the future and you talking about phase 2? get back to life. before any of your dreams can come true, lynas needs a fresh round of funding. even if we stick to the company estimates it takes 6 month to reach full capacity of phase 1. don't we know that these time projections tend to be a little off?
funny enough when the reo prices were skyrocketing you claimed that offtake agreements were flexible. now that prices have fallen you claim them to be stable. make up your mind. investing has nothing to do with wishful thinking.
forget about the hree as long as we don't know who separates at what costs. nd/pr oxide, let's be overoptimistic and say lynas can produce 2kt a year selling for $80/kg. this would account for a revenue of $140million, 2kt of ce carb at $8 =16m, 1kt la carb at $8= 8m, 3kt of ce/la carb @$8= 24m, 0,35kt of seg+hree at $100 = 35m. this scenario would roughly generate a total revenue of 250 million usd in 2013.
but what are the costs? lynas hasn't disclosed cost estimates for years.
so please take it away. what are the costs?
manpower: 40m
chemicals: ??
energy: ??
operation: ??
transportation: ??
insurance: ??
legal: ??
financing/interest payments: ??
financing/debt repayments: ??
corporate development: ??
delays: ??
others: ??

time to face real life instead of loony basket prices and phase 2 fantasies. as you can see in the chart you posted volumes of the costly materials don't change in phase 2. la and ce do but these products do not account for big percentages of revenue as prices continue to fall.

my mid term math on revenues from mt weld/lamp op is the following
ce ox: 5kt selling at $5 = 25m
la ox: 2.5kt selling at $5 =12,5m
nd/pr ox: 2.5kt selling at $35 = 88m
seg+hree: 0.5 kt selling at $150 = 75m
total revenue pa= 200 m

my long term math on revenues from mt weld/lamp op is the following
ce ox: 5kt selling at $2 = 10m
la ox: 2.5kt selling at $2 = 5m
nd/pr ox: 2.5kt selling at $40 = 100m
seg+hree: 0.5 kt selling at $200 = 100m
total revenue pa= 215 m

additional revenue can come from jvs, duncan but these projects have to be funded first
so profitability comes down to cost cutting. below the line i don't see this company making more than a profit of max 100m pa which is a nice profit. with a pe ratio of 20 and 2b shares i'm afraid the price target is somewhere around $1.