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21:25
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Originally posted by phuket guy:
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Hi Im new to this thread but not to this stock. 1. As per the Q3 report, -Base Case One (BC1) has a capital cost of AUD 20 mill. E25 has that on hand - so by second half this year they should be doing 1.3 MTUPA and making AUD 35 million PA .- put that on a 10x pe and the market cap should be 350 mill- thats $2.60 per share . 2. Base Case 2 (expansion to 2.6 MTUPA) will cost only 15 mill AUD more ( and paid from cashflow from BC 1above ). And seeing how efficient and aggressive management have been to date. We think they will get right on it. -the markets there for their mN. Then they will be making AUD 73 mill pa.according to q3 report. So lets now put that on a more conservative 8x pe - which means E25 market cap should be 584mill -thats $4.50 per share. Base Case 3 - extension to 3.9 MTUPA- and then they project they will making AUD 117mill pa. L ets keep that on a conservative 8 x PE and market cap should be AUD 936 mill - thats $7.20 per share. Note: our conservative figure above is far less than the independent experts BC3 case NPV of AUD 1.1 billion BUT IM NOT ANYWHERE NEASR FINISHED YET!......... the above figures are only counting normal MN production for steel-(I may have some numbers a bit wrong here so please correct me anyone -im not so good at exactly pricing Manganese) but they are counting sales at USD 137 per MTU? That's friggin 14X more for their Mn than we all, and the independent experts, are all calculating now! he catch is that building a Mn purifying plant onsite will cost around 300 million++AUD. E25 doesn't have that money yet, and don't want to take on that much debt. -However ..... 5-7$ a share off current normal MN deal. is 10-12$.
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Great Research phuket guy, thank you.
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