Bauxite now up to $72, page-23

Hi Nihlism/Happycats

Would appreciate your thoughts on my calcs below. Have I missed anything major, or wildly under/over estimated anything? Cheers


Assumptions:

- Global average Alumina content per ton of Bauxite approx 35%
- Average price paid for Bauxite of this grade. $50/t
- 25% Alumina content QBL Resource approx. $35/t
- 30mt becomes inferred in next ann, and converts to measured at a later date.
- Plant and equipment CAPEX based on ABZ project estimates 180m (very approx. based on 2x cost of 2-3mtpa plant)
- OPEX $25/t Based on ABZ project estimates and allowing for much better proximity to port and existing infra.

= Gross Profit margin $10/t

Based on 5mtpa x 90% efficiency = 45m gross profit p/a
After exploration, interest, tax, ship load of depreciation, prob gets it down to $35m NPAT

X 6 years ignoring further exploration, increase production efficiencies and Bauxite price upside = $210m.

Realistically, no one values a company at the full resource value at current ore prices but half might be realistic once the 30m/t proven up. $100m market cap??

cheers