Yipotho, No I’m not bullish. If you go through the posts I have made, I sense I'm an outlier. I don't trust the UN, mainstream media or opinion pieces, I don't trust the Moslem Brotherhood and therefore President Hadi himself. Many Governors are reported to be of the Moslem Brotherhood including PSA's Shabwah Governorate. I even do not know the objective of the KSA with regards to this war. And finally and to me most importantly on my list of distrusts, I think corruption in the legitimate government (linked throughout the above list) is aimed at war profits and meant to keep this war ongoing. I do not have any knowledge of what Petsec are doing - a quarterly report is due soon and my guess will be that it will say very little. And whilst I'm sure Terry and his new team are working hard, I don't have the feel that things will change in the next 6 months.
I trusted the genuine effort of the UAE, but am a little confused where they go next.
My attitude is positive in one sense and that is the strength of the Southerners. The outlook for them is simple but blurred: can they get their country back. For if they do, it is likely that the Shabwah region and hence PSA's Block S1 will be under their control. And my guess is that they should be keen to have PSA produce. For some reason the Southerners are the only success story in the Houthi fight (Please read recent posts for catch-up.) and this holds them in my highest regard. They go by many names but the political focus is with the STC. UAE is said to have trained 90000 soldiers but my understanding is that tribal involvement is many times greater and these forces have consolidated much of the southern and eastern areas of Yemen.
Still the divorce could be messy and the STC continue to voice their support to the legitimate Yemen Government to rid Yemen of the Houthi menace. Hence it will take time before this comes to pass.
