BBI babcock & brown infrastructure group

bbi and beppa holders have been robbed , page-8

  1. 1,491 Posts.
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    I have a slightly different take on this. I don't think the private equity investor would much care what the current share price is. Because the value in BBI is largely going to be determined by agreeing on a multiple for the EBITDA, and then secondly by reducing this number by the outstanding debt. The existing market cap is simply irrelevant to the calculation because it is going to be completely overwhelmed by the dilution that is coming. If 350 Billion shares will need to be issued, that will be a function of low valuation, high debt levels, and a requirement by the private equity investor for his investment to give him x% control of the company. I gave one calculation in my lengthier post on how a deal might be constructed that shows how we could get to that level of dilution, which is extreme.

    The only utility that BBI common and hybrids have now is that they stand in the way of an agreement with the investor. To the extent they can block an investment out of sheer spite, those classes of shares need to be appeased. But ultimately it won't matter if the BBI shares are trading at 20 cents or 2 cents. That might affect the amount of dilution when BEPPA converts, but it won't ultimately change the end game, because after hybrids are converting they both get washed out by the new investor.

    This assumes the new investor is in the spirit of most private equity players. If they are genuine nice guys and reach into their own pockets to give some value to the common and hybrids, then good for them and the world will be a better place for it. I just won't invest based on that hope.
 
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