BBP can be a great play for sovereign investors and cashed up...

BBP can be a great play for sovereign investors and cashed up AAA companies. If I was the purchaser this is the kind of prospects I would see (please bear in mind the numbers are rough and not to be relied upon):

-Offer currently shareholders $300m (40cps) and immediately repay all debts owed to BNB as incentives to relinquish their management rights (BNB should not have a problem with that).
-Due to the size of the sovereign fund they are able to get re- finance at a lower level, immediately re-pay all debts (if the banks agreed) then borrow the same amount (say $3B) at a cheaper level, say IR + 200 basis points (est 5%).
-Income should be fairly stable due to its business nature, say EBIT $300m in FY10, $350m FY11 and $450m FY12 (I think my numbers are fairly conservative), Interest expense of $150m per year ($3B @ 5%) this will make NPAT (distributable dividends) @30% tax to be $105m (ROE of 35%) in FY10, $140m (ROE of 47%) in FY11 and $210m (ROE of 70%) in FY12.
-I think once we reach to end of FY12, the global financial crisis should be over and economy improving. Lets just say BBP NTA in FY12 is valued at FY09 level (Power plants + Alinta Business to be worth NTA $1B) this is very conservative IMO.
-Sell the business for $4B making $1B profit ($4B - $3B debt).

So in the end a $300m investment will net you $1.55B ($105m + $140m + $210m + $1B) making a ROE of 517%, or better yet don’t sell the business and live on dividends.

I realised that the numbers maybe flawed, but I think this is the sort of logic that they are thinking about, energy will always be needed especially as population grows, and as RM and labour becomes more expensive so would building replacement power plants.

I strongly belief that there will be a play for BBP, just hoping the price to be reasonable.