Firstly, oil exports are limited by big pipelines ... they are expensive, and the Russian state pipeline owning company hasnt had a couple of billion for capex in the last 10 years.
Secondly, the Russians recovered from their post-Soviet production crash by drilling lots and lots of stepouts, and by putting previously-found fields into production. But they didnt go out and drill wildcats in new basins and find big new provinces.
The Russian fields are now heading into decline, and the East Siberian pipeline is held up by politics (will it terminate in China or Japan ... you can see the strategic questions).
Yes, the Bear is still in play. But watch out for big new pipelines being built, and then mark down your 3-5 price horizon for oil.
