what a laugh these stats are.shadow stats by FRED have inflation...

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shakespeare

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24/03/21

23:30

Post #: 52019472
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Originally posted by nailsnglue: ↑

A very interesting chart you have there. The momentum is extraordinary atm. XAU is concentrated to 30 USA only gold miners. I note it also sells off sharply many times on the chart with no impact on the NDQ but lacks the momentum preceding it.

When people eventually rush for the exits, I don't know. It seems too soon to be now but I agree things look risky. I can't help but feel stockholders, bond holders and crypto traders are convinced the money printing will lead to hyperinflation though underlying core inflation figures still seem benign. Certainly, inputs, ex oil, are rising and rising fast. You'd have to argue that some of the increases to the commodities table below look borderline hyperinflationary. So maybe traders are right in that markets keep on going up.

Perhaps reported core inflation lags the commoditised inputs by a period of time. If the price of lumber (second last item) has increased in price by 89% in three years, surely a house must increase this much too and so too must the gross sales of stocks related to building houses which sit on the S&P500. I bought a PVC pipe piece today and the guy says that will be $9.85. I said that seemed a little higher than last time and he replied the cost of resin is rising - went up 20% in 2 months. He blamed it on a supply issue of resin but I seriously doubt this to be true as commodities as a whole have risen very quickly. Much quicker than inflation figures.

What happens from here is anyone's guess. A rug pull of easy money might be the first thing. CB's have got to want to test the waters at some point.

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what a laugh these stats are.
shadow stats by FRED have inflation measured by 1990 formulae at 6%, 1980 formulae at 10%.

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0 Great analysis

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