Misplaced optimism in my view @thebeautifulstyle. I would suggest focussing only on ‘Active’ cases and the ratio of ‘recovered’ to ‘active’, then compare that to the other countries that started their spread before the US (Italy/Spain/France/Germany). Also suggest you keep on eye on OpenTable bookings stats, as well as Google/Apple mobility data. In short, the US is in more trouble than Burke & Wills with regards to Covid-19. The only chance they have is the science, which suggests sun/heat may kill the virus more quickly (given they are moving into summer now). If that science doesn’t play out, which we will only know in 4 to 8 weeks, then they are porked, Truly porked.
I’ve mentioned on this forum previously an opinion that the S&P500 will move around 5-10% plus/minus until we begin to get a guide on May/June economics and the virus spread post partial opens. I think thats about what we’ve seen the last two weeks; up down up down.
What drove the initial S&P500 run early April was largely around short covering. What drove the end of April run was largely around new entrant retail traders. If the big institutional traders start seeing economic and/or Virus data they don’t like in the next 4 weeks, then they will start to offload. As they do, the retailer traders will be caught and start to slowly follow in an accelerating pattern and thereby exacerbate the decline. My personal view is that if the decline is around the 20%-30% range the Fed will not backstop given the bad press they are starting to receive around how they’ve “created a Ponzi” and “supported Wall Street over Main Street”. So we probably don’t fall below March 23 lows unless it moves too quick for Fed action. So my opinion is that nothing major will happen in the next 2 - 4 weeks with BBUS; so I would sell BBUS on S&P500 ~5% declines and buy BBUS on S&P500 rises of ~5% with relatively short term holds, looking to limit profits/losses to 3%-5% range.
As to a large run down of 20%+ I think it’s a 50-50 from here, and likely wont occur/start to occur before the end of May (if it does occur). IMHO. DYOR.
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