I would suggest you focus solely on “Active” cases
@blip. They matter most because they’re the spreaders. Until that ‘Active’ case figure peaks, and then drops significantly (in any state or country), opening up is Russian Roulette because of the extremely virulent nature of Covid-19. You’ll note that Australia's ‘Active” cases, for example, peaked about 6 weeks ago and has declined steadily ever since to now be only about 500 “active” cases (Australia’s active cases is about 0.05% of the USA; they have 15x our population but similar land mass (without Alaska) and hence increased spread density). The USA is over 1.1M ‘active’ cases today and still rising. In Texas and Florida, for example, they had seen what looked to be a peak early May, and then a slight decline. After opening up, the Florida/Texas Active cases are back on the increase again in the last week.
At this point, the US Government is gambling that Summer will more readily slow the Virus (Sunlight/Heat), as well as citizens now being more savvy (i.e. masks). At this early point post opening, initial data suggests the trend is heading away from that gamble. It may take the month of June for this to clearly play out. The US are testing more people, but on a per capita basis, they are still behind countries like Italy and Australia. Also keep in mind that their positive test rate is still over 13% an done the highest in the world. And they have no automated contact tracing (Australia has Covidsafe; imperfect but broadly deployed and better than nothing), due largely to the US cultural dynamics making it socially unpalatable.
One thing is clear; the US Government is comfortable sacrificing their citizens for their economy. But that may not be enough, because 70% of the USA economy is consumer consumption. The early Chinese data (their economy less reliant on consumers) suggests consumers will be slower to return to previous spending levels. Time will tell. But for sure nothing the Fed does conjures up consumption. At the end of the day, you can throw unlimited money (Liquidity) at a problem but a business still needs customers to buy what they are selling.
For me, absent a broadly utilised and effective vaccine by December 2020, the USA is facing an economic predicament that has no clear resolution.
(20min delay)