HiI have also been following the Covid 19 numbers coming out of...

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Probability123

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04/06/20

17:10

Post #: 45041406
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Originally posted by Fisher85: ↑

The daily covid infection rate numbers are directly correlated to the number of tests that are being undertaken. The weekly report from the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) shows that the rate of testing has dramatically decreased over the past few weeks which would have a direct impact on the number of active and positive cases being reported.

It is also worth keeping in mind that the below graph is from the 23 May (almost two weeks ago) but published on the 29th May. This means that these figures are pre-riot and civil unrest. Personally I think it would be highly unlikely that the rate of testing would remain stable during the unrest, a more likely scenario is the current trend of decreasing test numbers will be exacerbated by the current situation and the rate of testing will continue to decrease at an increasing rate with only people with more severe symptoms presenting for testing and diagnosis. This would mean that there is the potential for the daily covid infection numbers to be significantly suppressed in reporting over the coming weeks. This would create a false sense of security that the virus has disappeared/been controlled prior to a sudden increase in case numbers in the future which could be the tipping point (or one of many).

Of course i could be totally wrong also.

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Hi

I have also been following the Covid 19 numbers coming out of the US, the infection case numbers as you have pointed out are too easy to manipulate but the death numbers (sorry for the morbidity) are much harder to disguise. If around late June you see these numbers trending up then you will know there is a risk of losing control regards the spread of the infection. Trump will probably fight a second lockdown tooth and nail, what may happen is democratic states lockdown and republican states under pressure from Trump stay open, either way when people are afraid they will impose self lockdowns and then the economy may a second hit. Of course there could be more money coming from the Fed regards QE at that point.

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