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crosek

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19/06/20

09:30

Post #: 45316537
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Originally posted by specvestor: ↑

Florida cases continue to rise today with +3,207 cases - while some may point out this is expected with increased testing the % of +ve tests are increasing which is a sure sign of increased community spread.

Found this article on the NPR. TLDR; Data Scientist uses the data to prove none of the countys in Florida should be opened based off Federal Guidelines. Gets told to fudge the numbers *something something* and shes not working for them anymore.

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/14/876584284/fired-florida-data-scientist-launches-a-coronavirus-dashboard-of-her-own

Florida has gone into Phase 2 on June 5 when they shouldn't have. We are now 13 days after the date and seeing substantial (but not yet exponential) increases in in numbers note: there was already a 3-day and 7-day moving average trend up on 5 June!

My conclusion is as follows: The economic damage reported by the World Bank, OECD and FED are all very real. States are stuck between a rock and a hard place - and currently leaning on risking the lives of their citizens for the benefit of their economy. This might work out o.k. but if the equation of:

Incoming COVID hospitalisations - Outgoing COVID hospitalsations > Hospital Capacity

Then you are going to see a spike in deaths. This will lead to, irrespective of the economy being open, consumer fear and thus a slow-down in this V-Shaped recovery.

Prediction: July will be a double whammy to the markets. #1 COVID spiralling out of control with a leader in denial that a stupid bug is going to ruin his re-election hopes and #2 earnings will miss targets, the V-shaped recovery dreams dashed and people will start to realise that this is actually going to be a recession - it's gonna suck and take a long time to recover from this.

I'll be riding this the whole way, unless another $x Trillion stimulus is announced in which case im out.

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Found this visual which plots it all nicely...

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BBUS, page-6278

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Red Hill Minerals Signs $6.5 Million Agreement with Peel Mining to Explore Curnamona Project, NSW

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BBUS, page-6278

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