I think the first glipse we will get at an answer is to see what...

I think the first glipse we will get at an answer is to see what happens in Spain and Italy after the next three weeks.

I'm ignoring China, it was clear early on that their combination of draconian measures, social norms (very liberal use of masks), mass surveillance and technology are perhaps enough to remain on top of a virus with a functioning economy... if not for their deceitful conduct and augemented figures.

if we get a glipse that Italians can venture outside again amid a highly contagious virus capable of exponential growth via community transmission... tack on free travel of people between continents and regions then maybe I'm done.