BCB now in production, page-156

I have been watching with interest the scratching at Broadmeadow East by BUMA (unless I've got the site wrong DYOR). Seems to be striking black in the middle section. I can assure you that this site was grass 1 mth ago. Thats the haul line to Burton on the left. So I think I've got the site right. Lets wait for confo from the co DYOR I could be wrong.

BUMA were pointed at the site in early May with the instruction to get into it and aim for 600k by end of year. That's 100k per mth (ROM) from here and at say US $400/t (conservative) and AUD 0.71 and FOB cost say A$135 it's not too far off $25-30m EBITDA/Mth. Thats after Bluff sales and before Burton/Lenton gets underway in Q4. Might be wrong DYOR



On pricing, ARA stocks building out prior to cutting off russian imports into EU on Aug 10 seem to have softened the whole market along with china off/on confusion. As ARA stocks begin to dwindle into winter I expect Newcastle to firm again and premium coking to follow. Our near term bluff sales are all covered under agreement struck earlier in 2022.



EU just voted to ban conventional cars by 2035. New cars need to be built, factories retooled, steel is central, there is little alternative to met coal on the horizon. More production of steel will need to migrate from Russia and China to India, SE Asia, Africa, EU to limit western exposure to bad actors in a new world. Seems disruptive but overall numbers point up and to the right. Wood Mckenzie provide a picture of where the demand is going to come from (see declining china) and where the supply will be found (see Australia).



BCB timing is A1.