BCB publishes Australian Research report: pricte target $0.18-0.46

BCB have just posted 52-page report by Australian Research on themselves giving a price target of between $0.18 and $0.46:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/bowen-coking-coal_iir-research-activity-7151120594254622721-jLqh (click the square icon in the lower right to go full screen and once in full screen mode there'll be a download icon in the upper right corner which will let you download it as PDF)

Here's an excerpt of some key points:

FUTURE DRIVERS OF THE BOWEN SHARE PRICE:

• Evidence of strong operational cash generation should be in clear view in the March 2024 quarterly report due around 25 April 2024, and early evidence should be contained in the December 2023 quarterly report due around 29 January 2024. The December Quarter will include payment of costs built up in previous quarters which have to be separated from ongoing operating costs. EBITDA is expected to be A$30-40M per quarter depending on coal prices at current capacity of 2.4-2.7Mtpa ROM.
• The quarterly is also likely to demonstrate that the company’s mines are producing as expected, and that operating costs and capital spending are becoming predictable, as are the prices Bowen is achieving relative to coal benchmark prices. Greater predictability means less risk for investors and a higher market rating flowing to a higher share price.
• Commitment to the expansion to 5.5Mtpa adds long term cash flow and coal price leverage but adds short term risk in the event of a sharp fall in coal prices. We do not see expansion as a necessary condition to share price performance and delaying expansion to build a cash buffer is a strategy worth considering.2Bowen Coking Coal Ltd (ASX:BCB)Independent Investment Research
• Further developments like the sale of Isaac River or Scoping Study on the development of Hillalong would also have a positive impact. There is no timing for these events, but if Isaac River is to be sold, it has to be in the next 12 months otherwise Bowen will probably be better off developing the project in its own right.

VALUATION: CENTRAL VALUE A$0.21/SH

• Valuation of NPV A$0.21/sh with high sensitivity to Australian dollar coal prices
• Valuation on asset values (breakup value) A$0.18/sh to A$0.21/sh
• Valuation on earnings at PER 8x A$0.27/sh to A$0.46/sh but very sensitive to coal prices

P.S.: Reposting this with correct price targets