With recent share price weakness I thought I'd revisit this thread to see what's (potentially) changed, if the thesis still holds and to update some of the numbers with latest available information.
But before I get to any numbers or valuation, let's review the thesis, as that is the most important. Full details can be found in the link below, which is the first post in this thread but I'll paraphrase here too to make life a bit easier.
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/55837280/singleEvery investment requires a reason. It may be you like management, you want exposure to an industry/commodity, it's cheap, it has a strong track record etc etc. No matter what the reason is, there's a reason. It can be right, wrong, silly or random but I don't know anyway that just randomly picks a code and buys a parcel.
My reasons were detailed in the first post. Any good investor should continually check to see if things change and make appropriate decisions accordingly. Has the thesis changed? If yes, how? If no, and if the SP has not met expectations it either means you're wrong or early. Am I wrong or early - I guess we'll find out over the next 12-18 months.
For me, my investment in BCC was based on the following (in no order):
1.Low market capMy specialisation is micro and small caps. I love the space as it provides the biggest leverage to outsized returns and is often correlated to how much effort you put in (research wise). There will be many mistakes along the way as this area is very risky but if you're successful, your winners should easily outpace your losers, particularly if you're disciplined in selling bad calls.
Back in Sep 2021 when I made the above post, BCC had an EV of $13.9m and a share price of 22.5c. Today, the EV is $18m and the share price is 26.5c noting there has been 1 CR in between. It hasn't been flat during that time. It went past 60c back in December and has basically struggled after the CR with recent weakness likely tax loss selling from some CR participants.
But from a thesis perspective, the material upside hasn't changed. In fact, the business is significantly de-risked and more mature, so new investors have the opportunity to buy in at a very low price for something on the cusp of some material inflection and operational leverage.
BOTTOM LINE:Even though the MC, EV and SP are slightly higher than back in Sep, the business is significantly more advanced and de-risked. I think that with this lower risk, the thesis is actually MORE FAVOURABLE than back in Sep 2021.2.Established business with market leading productsBeam is a diversified business with a rich history in satellite communication devices. It's not a one-trick pony with Zoleo, but it also benefits from Certus devices and has a retail presence, so it can manage the customer experience.
BOTTOM LINE: Since Sep, Beam has invested back in the business and expanded its geographic presence. Basically, as a total business, it's in a lot better shape. Tick 
3. Beam (Zoleo) is a challenger in a growing marketZoleo remains a key challenger to Garmin. Importantly, from a review, quality and price perspective, it's positioned perfectly. The recent investment in stock and components was in part made to protect the retail price - which is lower than Garmin and where it needs to be to win market share.
BOTTON LINE: No meaningful change. Zoleo remains a key a growing challenger. Both seem to be doing very well in the market.
4. Beam/Zoleo is growing, executing and moving into new markets quicklyThe domestic retail presence continues to improve but the big thing that has changed since Sep was the recent announcement stating that it has officially expanded into the UK, Norway, Finland and Denmark. Market expansion into mature, developed economies that have a market for Personal Consumer Devices makes a lot of sense.
BOTTOM LINE: We knew market expansion was happened and now it has happened. The investment has been made, so the gains are ahead of us. While I don't see it as a huge immediate earnings contributor, it does build a better, bigger business over the long term. We also have the local Enterprise market which is significant. We made a big hire from Telstra and these sales cycles are a lot longer, so we're about due a big announcement in this space. Once you get these names, it creates a network effect and these clients are super sticky.
5. The satellite Personal Communications Device market is expected to expand by 29% per annum through to 2025Ideally from an investment in any market, you want to be in a growing market. Even better, you want your investment to be increasing their market share in that growing market. The market that Beam participates in continues to grow and that is being confirmed in earnings calls from satellite provider Iridium.
BOTTOM LINE: Iridium continues to SPECIFICALLY mention Zoleo in earnings calls. For a US$5bn company to mention a small Australian company with a sub $20m EV is a very big deal. Since Sep, Iridium continues to benefit from market tailwinds, which further supports Beam.
6. There are multiple levers to improve value added services to boostARPUThis is a big one. In a perfect world, you want subscriber growth AND ARPU growth. Beam hasn't recently stated what ARPU is largely because it has fallen. The reason it has fallen was Zoleo owners paused or their subscription during covid, paying a nominal fee vs the entry level plan of $32.
But we're out of covid and things are starting to go back to normal. The levers that were there are still there. The only difference is the local macro conditions have improved from a short rough patch that impacted key NSW and VIC markets, to much better conditions now. Messages and location sharing are the tip of the iceberg. As we get more subscribers, there becomes an exponential benefit from the use of these high margin services. It's one of the key reasons why they raised money - to bring forward the benefit and grow even faster.
BOTTOM LINE: We're now officially out of covid, so my expectations that ARPU trends will start to rise again should be a base-case view. We have immediate value added services now available, while Beam is investing in API/SDKs for 3rd party integration, which could really accelerate growth, adoption and use - these are yet to be released and could be available with the Zoleo 2 (whenever that is). 
7. Finally, Beam is a misunderstood stock.This is a big one and a source of frustration with many of my fellow investors. Liquidity in the stock is low, there's no broker coverage, the JV is opaque and difficult to understand and there is no insto ownership. I'm glass half full on this. I still see this as an opportunity as when these things kick in the impact will be significant. I see how hard Michael and Brendon work to get the company out there but the reality is, it's not easy, and we remain a very small company with low resources. I'm not making excuses as I think paid broker research is low hanging fruit, but the upside will come when this becomes popular and/or earnings start to really inflect.
BOTTOM LINE: Nothing has really changed since last Sep. I know PAC are engaging with Beam, but whether that results in broker coverage I'm not sure. Outside of Peak, there is no real insto ownership and the JV remains as complex as ever. If/when we crack this nut, that could be the catalyst to more new investors, which is something we all want.
BOTTOM, BOTTOM LINE: So when I reflect on the reasons why I invested, broadly, things are better or more advanced, the business remains well capitalised and the risk profile has reduced - but the SP has only gone up incrementally.
Consequently, it's probably an even better investment now but I'll let Mr Market determine if I'm right or wrong. I always said that I was looking towards at least the end of FY23 so there remains a bit of time between now and then. If the SP shows a bit more weakness I might use it as an opportunity to top up. GLTAH
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