Part1–ZoleoNumbersProjectedtoEndFY23Thanksagainto@Access2020forth...

Part1–ZoleoNumbersProjectedtoEndFY23

Thanksagainto@Access2020fortheexcellentanddetailedanalysis.It’sreallyinterestingandreassuringthatweseemto endupwithverysimilarprofitprojectionsdespitecomingatitfromverydifferent methods.IwillonlyupdatemyZoleo numberstoday;hopefullyIcanupdatemyprojectionsforBeamandJV profitssoon.

FollowingBeam’sreleaseofthelatestordernumbers, IhaveupdatedmyearliertableofZoleonumbers (seebelowTableformyassumptions). NotethatthegreenhighlightedvalueshavebeenprovidedbyBeam tothemarket(somenumbersapproximateduetoreadingthemoffsmallgraphs).

Inote andrespect that@Access2020hasbeen abitmoreconservativethanme forbothcustomersinNA(Iam41%higher) andcustomersinANZ(Iam 14%higher).IalsobelievethatIambeingconservativedueto:

·MynumbersinANZalignwithBeam’srecentpresentations.

·Zoleoordershavealreadyreached33,980for1QFY22andare risingfast,somyassumptionofunits shippedbeing30,000by1QFY23(to converttoair-timecustomersbyend4QFY23)ishardly astretch,particularlytakingintoaccounttheobvioustractionandfreepromotionsofZoleobysomesizableoutdoors/remoteuserentities.

	Quarter	Units Ordered	Units Shipped & Invoiced to JV	Units Starting Plans	Units exiting Plans	Total Units in Use World-wide	Units Starting Use in ANZ	Total Units in Use in ANZ	% in Use in ANZ	Units Starting Use in EU	Total Units in Use in EU	Units Starting Use in Asia	Total Units in Use in Asia	Units Used in NA
1	3Q FY20	5000	3876	0	0	0	0	0	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0
2	4Q FY20	5000	2400	1000	0	1,000	0	0	0.0%	0	0	0	0	1,000
3	1Q FY21	12750	3500	2876	20	3,856	160	160	4.1%	0	0	0	0	3,696
4	2Q FY21	12500	11500	2400	77	6,179	123	283	4.6%	0	0	0	0	5,896
5	3Q FY21	12500	8500	3500	124	9,555	282	565	5.9%	0	0	0	0	8,990
6	4Q FY21	22000	10500	11500	191	20,864	725	1,290	6.2%	0	0	0	0	19,574
7	1Q FY22	33980	13500	8500	417	28,947	800	2,090	7.2%	0	0	0	0	26,857
8	2Q FY22		16500	10500	579	38,868	1000	3,090	7.9%	0	0	0	0	35,778
9	3Q FY22		20000	13500	777	51,591	1250	4,340	8.4%	0	0	0	0	47,251
10	4Q FY22		25000	16500	1032	67,059	1500	5,840	8.7%	250	250	0	0	60,969
11	1Q FY23		30000	20000	1341	85,718	1750	7,590	8.9%	924	1174	0	0	76,954
12	2Q FY23		36000	25000	1714	109,003	2050	9,640	8.8%	1474	2,648	200	0	96,715
13	3Q FY23		42000	30000	2180	136,823	2400	12,040	8.8%	2248	4,896	739	739	119,148
14	4Q FY23		48000	36000	2736	170,087	2900	14,940	8.8%	4894	9,789	1179	1,918	143,439

My Assumptions:

1 - 3 qtrs (average 2 qtrs but getting longer due to stocking for UK & EU) to convert orders to "shipped & invoiced"
2 Quarters on average after units are shipped & invoiced for customers to commence plans
1 more Quarter for Zoleo Inc to convert new ARR into revenue and monthly royalty payments from gross profit
So in summary, I have assumed between 4 and 6 Quarters for initial orders to convert to JV Royalty payments
A churn rate in each Quarter of 2% (approx 8% annually) of total units in use in the previous quarter ceasing plans
A slight levelling in ANZ sales growth for FY22 Q1 & Q2 due to restrictions
Units shipped will keep increasing to 48,000 for 4Q FY23 (Note that Orders have already reached 33,980 for 1Q FY22)
Use a churn rate in each Quarter of 2% (approx 8% annually) of total units in use
EU units commencing use is 25% ofNA at the same period after sales start in 1Q FY23
AU units in use is assumed to grow to approx. 15,000 units in use by end FY23 (BCC estimate)