From the PAC Partners research note ( its a clickable Link...

From the PAC Partners research note ( its a clickable Link within the BCI broker research section within their report dated 20 Aug 2021 )

We have made material changes to the expected mine plan of Iron Valley. Previously we had this mine running until the end of FY24 at 7.5mtpa. The mine operator (Mineral Resources) is expected to announce a 10-year mine plan in late 2021 and that will provide a detailed map of production. Based on preliminary announcements, we have ascertained the following:

• The Utah Point hub is capable of shipping 14mtpa (port capacity limited), though due to labour shortages, 11mt is more likely for FY22;

• Wonmunna and Iron Valley are the current two operating mines servicing Utah Point. Wonmunna is currently licensed to operate at 5mtpa, shortly going to 10mtpa (crushing capacity is already installed);

• The imminent increase in tonnes at Wonmunna is at the expense of Iron Valley. From MIN’s perspective, Wonmunna is lower cost and has lower impurities; and

• Longer term, MIN is drilling two other nearby deposits with the aim of building a resource and hence alternative mines.

We forecast 5mt at Iron Valley for FY22 and 4mtpa for FY23-25, and then assume MIN close Iron Valley. The forecast lower volumes in the medium-term lowers forecasts for BCI; albeit our estimated royalty rate has increased after analysing the FY21 result.