They will not be trading at anywhere near $1.50.BCS is a $3...

They will not be trading at anywhere near $1.50.

BCS is a $3 share which has lost just 33.3% of its value, not a $1 share that has lost 99.9%. There is still a long way for it to fall.

My estimate is that optimistically they'll trade at around $0.45 or so after the next two instalment payments have been made. That would keep the price at $0.001 even after the instalment payment in April.

That estimate is based on River City's (RCY) performance. BCS and RCY are very similar companies operating on a similar model, but RCY listed two years ahead of BCS. They are similar in that they are both toll roads in Brisbane, both stapled securities with instalment payments, both were to pay dividends out of their capital until the roads opened but had to cancel their dividends late last year. While they have a lot of similarities, RCY have a few advantages over BCS: Their instalment payments have all been made; their construction is 75% complete and is on schedule while BCS are just starting, so RCY have a lower risk of hitting a construction problem or delay; and RCY are 18 months from seeing paying customers compared to three and a half years for BCS.

For those reasons, RCY's performance can be considered a best case for BCS' full paid performance. RCY are currently down 85%. That is why I think $0.45 ($3.00 less 85%) is a generous estimate for BCS' current value fully paid.