BD1 - COVID-2019 (Coronavirus) Part 2, page-11

I heard a very interesting chat on ABC 774 while on a long drive last night. It was on being in cash and the market cycle by an investment manager. His view of panic and kaos which would be the first peg of 3 to possibly pick the bottom was interesting. One of his key pegs was a match to you "It saddens me to announce that I have lost all faith in the market. "

Just as interesting was clear winners from the kaos, not just the bring forward of sales profits such as toilet paper manufactures and supermarkets during hoarding which will later see no need to buy for a much longer time for the hoarders. Sales not changing just the timing unless some one can really find a new use for toilet paper I have missed.

Predictions of share market demise seem a little such as Dr Livingstone disappearance and assumed death and 1.5c for BD1. Volatility is impacting on everyone clearly yet not equally. Falls and liquidation of zero cash flow and highly leveraged people and Stocks is highly likely such as "Based on its internal financial modelling of continued deterioration of the current crisis, Rex believes that it will not have enough reserves to sustain more than 6 months of operations if the Government does not implement the measures outlined in our Open Letter"

Casual works hours reduced by at least a third already will kick retail, commercial rent, domestic rental and housing are in the firing line along with Banks which may need recapitalization.

BD1 on the other hand is proving commercialization for our test and health is not subject to the economic variations with an exception of elective surgery which may/will be impacted. I have tried to top up and missed most times it was just a little lower than today. I was clearly not the only one. Time frame is key to bottom. Time frame for BD1 is a validated peer reviewed commercial test.

Time frame for us is "the TFS contract into the optimisation phase for an improved version 2 RUO BARD1 kit and commenced optimisation activities." TFS optimisation phase for V2 RUO BARD1 kit started Q4 2019.

Reaching "phase 3 milestone of a version 1 Research Use Only (RUO) multiplex BARD1 kit" took from:

1. 18 May 2018 "BARD1 signs Assay Development Agreement with Thermo Fisher Scientific for Multiplex Research-Use-Only (RUO) Custom Assay Development"
2. 0 October 2019 "Phase three milestone to develop a research use only (RUO) BARD1 kit reached"

Version 1 took 18 months. I suspect Version 2 commercial ready for sale will be a lot faster. The question I ask is a low price bad or an opportunity for myself. I hate knowing I missed the boat myself. Not suggesting we are immune to volatility. Clearly we are not. There is no way my little buys or waffle pump up the price by the way. I assume it is people or business a lot bigger than me soaking up the scared or forced sales of BD1.

Forced share sales by distressed sellers is a topic all of its own. The international interest may be another factor. With a few who now know about BD1 tests at TFS having to consider the significant decline in $AUD which makes prior shares look much worse than the situation here or much better if like many who want more not less of BD1.

Negative views are welcome. My waffle can happily dismissed.