BDR Basics (FA), page-19

Well as of May these were assumptions they made that I think are way off base.

• FY17 they estimated gold to average $1,218. Considering we will sell probably 1/3rd of our production this quarter that is 60,000 ounces times $100 or a $6m mistake within the next 3 months
• FY18 they estimated gold to average 1,275. Again probably very low.
• FY19 they estimated 1,363 - at least they are trending in the right direction.

They have estimated currency in the 60's. Don't disagree with this but I think they have revised expectations higher of late due to our stubborn dollar and high rates comparatively. Wait for the rate cuts.

Now next:

• FY17 production estimate is 146.8k ounces. Seriously wtf. We will do 90-100k H1.
• FY 18 they have estimated 171, and FY19 they have estimated 179. 18 and 19 years include Urucum UG. I personally think pit redesign will have us using high grade surface ore and delaying UG and as such ramping up production a lot quicker than that.

AISC

• They are forecasting 800 falling to 760. That is basically in line with this years estimates (Calendar not FY). Should be lower especially if we ramp up ounces produced.

They are estimating BDR's NPAT for FY17 as 44m and cashflow as 28m. I will eat my hat if BDR can only make an improvement in cash and bullion position between the quarterly about to come out and the one in 12 months.

In short (or long) not to toot my own horn too much but I think I probably did a better job than Macquarie, for a lot less pay