Ok guys, as requested I am going to start a new thread with the data that I put up last night. Maybe we can use this as an FA focussed thread. Gold Price is good as our general discussion thread and then anything pertinent can be put into this thread. Hopefully it can be something useful for newcomers to BDR or just us regulars who want something to fall back on when we want to consider BDR prospects.
I have updated the numbers to be a bit more accurate. Obviously there is a number of assumptions involved in making these as always so happy for input from anyone else. The major assumptions are as follows:
- I have assumed BDR being debt free for these calcs - something I believe should happen over the next couple years
- I have assumed a throughput rate of 4.3Mtpa into the mill. This is a lot higher than what was achieved in 2015 but is essentially the throughput that was achieved in 2014 as highlighted by Speculator so we know it can be done
- I have assumed a head grade of 1.60g/t which is essentially our reserve grade and something Risky, Ivan and LifeUni suggested SJ was working towards achieving on a consistent basis. I feel this has been made more feasible by some of the recent high grade finds. 10 or 20k ounces a year at 10g+/t means the remainder can fall a bit below reserve grade giving us flexibility in the wet.
- I included royalties as pointed out by peterjdale - thanks for that.
- I believe $20m for G&A is too high and would like to see the boys rationalise this down to a lower figure
So overall I believe these to be achievable outcomes and what I believe SJ and the team are working towards.
Bear Case POG
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
| 1 |
Head Grade (g/t) |
1.60 |
| 2 |
Throughput (t) |
4,300,000 |
| 3 |
Recovery Rate |
90.00% |
| 4 |
grams per troy ounce |
31.10 |
| 5 |
|
|
| 6 |
Ounces Produced |
199,080.47 |
| 7 |
Sale Price |
$1,100.00 |
| 8 |
AISC |
$700.00 |
| 9 |
Production Revenue |
$79,632,189.82 |
| 10 |
|
|
| 11 |
FX rate |
$0.70 |
| 12 |
|
|
| 13 |
Production Revenue AUD |
$113,760,271 |
| 14 |
|
|
| 15 |
Less: G &A |
-$20,000,000.00 |
| 16 |
Less: D&A |
-$25,000,000.00 |
| 17 |
|
|
| 18 |
Taxable Income |
$68,760,271.17 |
| 19 |
|
|
| 20 |
Less: Tax @ 15.5% |
-$10,657,842.03 |
| 21 |
Less: Royalties at 2% |
-$2,275,205.42 |
| 22 |
|
|
| 23 |
Net Income |
$55,827,223.72 |
| 24 |
|
|
| 25 |
Cashflow |
$80,827,223.72 |
Bull Case POG
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
| 1 |
Head Grade (g/t) |
1.60 |
| 2 |
Throughput (t) |
4,300,000 |
| 3 |
Recovery Rate |
90.00% |
| 4 |
grams per troy ounce |
31.10 |
| 5 |
|
|
| 6 |
Ounces Produced |
199,080.47 |
| 7 |
Sale Price |
$1,300.00 |
| 8 |
AISC |
$700.00 |
| 9 |
Production Revenue |
$119,448,284.73 |
| 10 |
|
|
| 11 |
FX rate |
$0.70 |
| 12 |
|
|
| 13 |
Production Revenue AUD |
$170,640,407 |
| 14 |
|
|
| 15 |
Less: G &A |
-$20,000,000.00 |
| 16 |
Less: D&A |
-$25,000,000.00 |
| 17 |
|
|
| 18 |
Taxable Income |
$125,640,406.76 |
| 19 |
|
|
| 20 |
Less: Tax @ 15.5% |
-$19,474,263.05 |
| 21 |
Less: Royalties at 2% |
-$3,412,808.14 |
| 22 |
|
|
| 23 |
Net Income |
$102,753,335.58 |
| 24 |
|
|
| 25 |
Cashflow |
$127,753,335.58 |
Happy to hear anyone's input on all of the above and if anyone else has any scenarios they would like run, let me know
