BDR 0.00% 6.5¢ beadell resources limited

From my little understanding.......what is happening is BDR is...

  1. 950 Posts.
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    From my little understanding.......what is happening is BDR is detached from gold price, BDR is detached from any sort of fundamental valuation metrics. I don't think even any kind of technical indicators matter right now.
    I think it is all sentiment driven. Sentiment is on the driver's seat. That sentiment is terrible. BDR price point has crossed the pain tolerance threshold of many many investors retail & large. Most people can't take anymore. Everyone has a limit.
    Selling has also been aggravated by the closing of the RESOURCE FUND of Colonial Mutual Fund (CBA owned) and Paradice sell down earlier. There is no more Aussie institutional investors in BDR but only overseas institutional investors remain. (Van Eck actually added 5 million shares on that RE-Balance)

    It is clear as day that investors in Australia don't bother to care about BDR. It just has no market here.
    It has no institutional support from Aussie Funds neither does it have any from retailers. One can gauge retail sentiment on Hot Copper.
    The main reason for that being continual under performance for all the reason we know and some we don't know. Bottom line under performance. The second reason BDR being compared (Or fighting for the same investors money) to the Aussie producers who have a much better currency advantage. BDR has no chance winning that battle until the Aussie dollars goes to parity with the US dollar. (Not happening anytime soon, more likely Aussie dollar remaining flat to down)
    There might be other reasons such as by now every little investors assumes BDR operation will never make money. ( They could be very well right.....no one knows how that plant upgrade will work out until it happens and we see the results. That could be 6-12 months away.)

    Overall BDR price has no support from its current holders.

    So to put into simple layman terms analogy, If I have a shop which is not doing well in a certain area for whatever reasons, I have a choice to either shut it down or move to a different location where their could be demand for my product. That does not guarantee success but may give a fighting opportunity to keep on conducting my business. (All that cost time, labour & money).

    This is what BDR board has decided and they are moving on to Canada. What is the point of trading or keeping the business here when the stock goes down 10-15% on a daily basis. No one cares.

    Listing on TSX gives it a little favourable comparison peers as it will most likely will be compared to the South American producers in the same area. If and when BDR operation starts outperforming (production up, cost down, great drilling results adding multi-million ounces), then it will be easier for the North American investors to buy BDR + Golden Harp= Americano shares. (I am a still dreaming).

    Now with this merger which is very confusing........but what I have understand is BDR is spending 2 million dollars (not actual dollars) of its equity value to get listed in TSX-V.

    Sprott and Lundin associates are putting 4 million CAD dollars into Golden Harp which will be more than 90% of their ownership in Golden Harp. After that raising is done and Golden Harp(total valuation CAD 6million) is merged with BDR, the new Golden Harp will own 5.5 % and Old tired BDR holders will own 94.5 % of the newly merged entity Americano mining. My guess is when Americano mining starts trading it will have a valuation of 90-100 million CAD dollars with roughly 90-100 million shares available.
    The market has already brought BDR valuation to that level after that announcement.

    So again if and when BDR operation starts outperforming, those associated names like Eric Sprott, Lukas Lundin, Rick Rule can have quite a positive effect as those names have some sort of institutional following.

    So now people have a choice, whether they want to risk more and stick with this management or sell and take their left over dollars wherever they think they have a better fighting chance. I think most retail have already sold and the few remaining are in the process of selling.
    While this merger is happening there could be period where the shares are suspended from trading until it is listed back in ASX. I don't pretend to know exactly how it works, just my guesswork.
    Lot of small time traders have dumped or will dump just for that reason. If they can't trade the stock it is no good to them. They don't care about the price or fundamentals etc etc....all they care is if they can trade and catch the difference. That's all it matters to them. If I was only trading this stock I would sell out.
    Take my money somewhere I can actively trade. I want the thrill action etc.
    But if I am investing for a very long long term( In case of BDR) and trading here & there a small position to reduce holding cost, I will not be selling out for a 100 Million valuation for my holdings. I will wait it out if it takes another 2 years. While I know there is great risk and may get nothing, I am willing to take that risk and wait it out. If it still doesn't work out, another expensive lesson will be learned. But to buy all the way down and then sell out at the capitulation lows......can't do that. I am not adding anymore nor I am selling. I have decided to wait it out and see where it leads......with the names of those big guns appearing on the scene at generational lows. These people have made a name for not getting 1 to 2..3 or 4, but 1 to 10-20 etc.

    Another thing is that the large overseas investors will vote for this merger. Even if the Hot copper world doesn't it would really not matter as the large ones have nodded their head already. So the merger will go ahead, Sprott loan will come in.

    All is my own opinion. No investment advice.
    Last edited by flaming: 21/03/18
 
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