SF...trying to keep an open mind as to whether
1. 15/10/09 - another reason to like is this date
11/10/07 1576.09
19/08/08 1440.24
135.85 points/221 days = .6147 (if it was 220 days instead of 221 it would be a neat .6175 S&P points decline per calendar day)
ok with little licence if we use .618 points per day this intersects the 50% retrace 1121 on the 15/10/09....
so perhaps we could get drawn up into that date
2. 17/11/09 is 50% time retrace of the fall to march low
3. fundamentally - it might not be the results this October that breaks the camels back
delinquent loans (of any sort) across the whole country increased from q1 to q2 by 30%....and we seem to be on target for a similar result for q3
the bad loan process will take time to filter through...e.g
Citi's provision for bad loans (in their P&L) from q1 to q2 increased by only 19% as opposed to 30% industry average(good management!!..an extra 2.3b...12.6b up from 10.3b)...they reported a 4.2b profit....so even with a 30% increase in bad loan provisions this q (3.8b) all other things being equal they should be better than break even....just....analysts are expecting a loss of 21 cents a share...I think thats about 1.8b....so small hurdle there
where it gets harder is into dec 09 q4 and 2010...i.e if these bad loan rates keep increasing....it could potentially effect there P&L by an extra 5.0b in december qtr alone
perhaps it might be January before the penny drops - 16/1/10 is 61.8 time retrace....
so you might still get your favourite xmas rally!
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- XJO
- be alert ... not alarmed ... and have a plan
be alert ... not alarmed ... and have a plan , page-110
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 59 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add XJO (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
7,980.4 |
Change
9.300(0.12%) |
Mkt cap ! n/a |
Open | High | Low |
7,971.1 | 7,990.9 | 7,950.6 |
Featured News
XJO (ASX) Chart |