SF...trying to keep an open mind as to whether1. 15/10/09 -...

SF...trying to keep an open mind as to whether


1. 15/10/09 - another reason to like is this date

11/10/07 1576.09
19/08/08 1440.24
135.85 points/221 days = .6147 (if it was 220 days instead of 221 it would be a neat .6175 S&P points decline per calendar day)

ok with little licence if we use .618 points per day this intersects the 50% retrace 1121 on the 15/10/09....

so perhaps we could get drawn up into that date

2. 17/11/09 is 50% time retrace of the fall to march low

3. fundamentally - it might not be the results this October that breaks the camels back

delinquent loans (of any sort) across the whole country increased from q1 to q2 by 30%....and we seem to be on target for a similar result for q3

the bad loan process will take time to filter through...e.g

Citi's provision for bad loans (in their P&L) from q1 to q2 increased by only 19% as opposed to 30% industry average(good management!!..an extra 2.3b...12.6b up from 10.3b)...they reported a 4.2b profit....so even with a 30% increase in bad loan provisions this q (3.8b) all other things being equal they should be better than break even....just....analysts are expecting a loss of 21 cents a share...I think thats about 1.8b....so small hurdle there

where it gets harder is into dec 09 q4 and 2010...i.e if these bad loan rates keep increasing....it could potentially effect there P&L by an extra 5.0b in december qtr alone

perhaps it might be January before the penny drops - 16/1/10 is 61.8 time retrace....

so you might still get your favourite xmas rally!