I don't really believe this guy, but it looks like they are...

I don't really believe this guy, but it looks like they are trying to set up channel 10 for a massive short?

I think be cafeful, since the DMI is going negative, bollinger bands are narrowing, if it doesn't run now it'll possibily go for a big drop.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24638249-5017996,00.html



Citi analyst slashes earnings of major media companies

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Nick Tabakoff | November 12, 2008
Article from: The Australian

A LEADING analyst has slashed earnings and share price estimates for major local media companies by up to 60 per cent.

Citi media analyst Digby Gilmour said that "the worst of history will repeat itself" for the sector.

The grim view came as several media stocks yesterday came under heavy selling pressure, with one, Macquarie Media, down 10 per cent on the day.

In a report titled "The Worst Advertising Downturn in 40 Years", Mr Gilmour dramatically downgraded his recommendations on APN News & Media -- currently up for sale -- and Fairfax Media from "buy" to "sell".

He has also put a shock target price on Ten Network Holdings of just 44c a share: 68 per cent below yesterday's closing price of $1.37 a share.

Mr Gilmour suggests Ten will be "loss-making" from the 2010 financial year onwards.

It is Mr Gilmour's third general profit downgrade for the media sector this year, and he now thinks the media will not reach a "trough" until the end of the 2010 financial year.

Mr Gilmour has taken a particularly savage view of APN, slashing its target price from $2.88 to just $1.19 a share.

He has poured cold water on Independent News & Media's recently-announced attempt to drum up interest in its 39 per cent stake in APN, as part of an attempt to generate a takeover bid for the group.

"Credit market spreads coupled with existing funding constraints of trade buyers make a competitive bid scenario highly unlikely," he said.

He saw the INM announcement as a "forced sale" because of the Irish group's need to pay down debt.

His new target price reflected "the potential for a forced sale with no competitive bidders, all with a high degree of earnings uncertainty".

He saw APN and Fairfax's fate as being tied. "APN's recent trading update implies material near-term earnings downside for Fairfax Media, and we downgrade aggressively as a result," Mr Gilmour said.

In lowering his Fairfax target price from $2.50 to $1.41 a share, Mr Gilmour suggested the company's debt covenants could soon be tested.

"Our numbers assume 2009 financial year EBITDA/net interest of 3.5 times, which we estimate may put pressure on debt covenants ... Fairfax's high operational and financial gearing may make earnings volatility an issue throughout this downturn," he said.

Mr Gilmour also predicted the two private equity joint ventures that own TV stations, PBL Media and Seven Media Group, would "trade at a loss" through the current downward media cycle.

Criterion -- Page 37