Hi Nick
If you add the Talga's own published NPV's in the Vittangi DSF and the Niska SS they have a combined NPV with an 8% discount rate of between US$3.5B and US$5.7B.
https://www.talgagroup.com/irm/PDF/47146b39-9c1e-42ef-830e-15ef895e5b63/RobustDFSPavesWayForTalgaBatteryAnodeProject
https://www.talgagroup.com/irm/PDF/00041131-e82a-48d2-83bf-27b0a1003b4d/NiskaStudySupportsGloballySignificantAnodeProject
The range is due to the Talnode-C sale price range of $7,500 to $11,250/t used in the Niska SS.
In the Vittangi DFS, a 24 years LOM is US$12,312/t anode and is forecast as a flat price of US$11,875/t anode from 2030. As this is a more detail document and has been completed since the Niska SS I think we can use the upper range of Talnode-C sales price of US$11,250/t in calculating the Niska NPV.
NPV 8% Discount Calculation 1 Vittangi DFS $1,054,000,000 2 Niska SS $4,650,000,000 3 Total $5,704,000,000 4 Share On Issue 303000000 5 US$/SP $18.83 6 A$/SP $26.33 Ex Rate 0.715
So even at an annual 100kt Talnode-C production rate we get a current NPV SP of +$26.00.
With a current SP of $1.45 the market is valuing Talga at only around 5% of the combined NVP's.
I have a very big bet that the market is wrong, and hope to be proved right in the next 3-6 .
Regards
Gero
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