JRV 10.0% 1.1¢ jervois global limited

be very very careful with this one

  1. 205 Posts.
    Guys, guys, guys. Be VERY careful with this one. I would suggest that the reporting practices being exhibited by this company are simply not acceptable. The company has obligations to explain to shareholders all material facts that an informed shareholder might reasonably want to know. Those facts SHOULD include the following:

    1. Reporting gross in-ground values is generally regarded as very doubtful practice in the industry, since what matters is a) the NET that can be recovered, b) the time frame over which the NET can be recovered, c) the capex that must be outlaid to achieve the NET, and d) the certainty with which the NET is likely to be received.

    2. The history of nickel laterites in Australia is very sad. Very capable companies have had their noses bloodied.

    3. There are emerging laterite projects in WA - BHP and Heron for example. But these companies are planning (I understand) to use the HPAL process.

    4. Development of emerging processes is a very challenging task. Just ask any long suffering INL shareholder! It is very difficult and costly.

    5. There are likely very good reasons why a chloride based process has yet to be used in leaching nickel laterites.

    6. It is one thing if a major company is advancing a new process, and quite another if a little company is trying to do it. Have a look at AMC. Even the big companies can get it spectacularly wrong - BHP with Coloso, HBI.

    7. The capital cost for a project of this nature is still likely to be very high, even if JRV can prove that the capex is lower than HPAL.

    8. For capital to be available for a project of this nature, JRV will have to raise money to build a pilot plant to demonstrate the technology. That process cost AMC some $200m. It could cost at least $50m and take a couple of years.

    9. In any case, a small company raising big capex for a new project has almost no chance of raising the capital to develop the project these days. The experiences of investors in the development capital markets with Murrin Murrin and the other nickel laterites, AMC, HBI and a long list of other disasters has closed the development capital market in Australia. The investors are on strike and understandably so.

    10. If they are able to raise capital for the pilot plant and then the project (unlikely in my view, but I may be wrong) then you can be sure that it will be on very adverse terms for shareholders.

    Market experience with small companies attempting big projects is that you can get a good run in the early stages before the realities hit home, but the share price subsequently slumps, and it all gets very hard.

    I am not sure of the credentials of the principals of JRV to advance a challenging project of this nature, and whether they have the confidence of the capital providers. Banks and large equity providers tend to be fairly demanding that project proponents engage proven project builders, and funds are not available if proven people are not involved. This would be a good question for shareholders to direct at the company.

    Finally, in my view, the reporting practices of this company are at the extreme end of doubtful, and I would be very surprised if the ASX and other industry watchdogs doesn't have something to say about it.

    Do your own research.
 
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