Beach Energy reserves downgrade = more value for COE

According to the recent update from Beach Energy only 8.7mmboe or 53.23PJ of natural gas is left from their asset Western Flank (a 36% drop in reserves).

In early 2019 Santos and Senex agreed to supply Santos gas from the Moomba gas facility. The agreement was for Senex and Beach Energy to supply 20PJ over that period. I'm not sure what portion of the 20PJ, 3-year term agreement Beach Energy committed to.

A year later in early 2020 Santos and Beach Energy strike a deal with Quenos to supply 15PJ per annum of ethane (total 60PJ) until 2025 from the Moomba gas facility. Once again I don't know what portion of this Beach Energy committed to. Also Beach Energy has cease producing gas from it's recently developed Katnook Gas plant in SA due to the Western Flank downgrade.

However Beach Energy announced to the market that they have discovered 97PJ in the Otway basin earlier this year with gas planned to flow from 2022. At this point in time, Beach Energy's Otway basin assets are well placed for them to recover from the downgrade of Western Flank.

Beach Energy have withdrawn 5-year guidance, I eagerly await the next announcement regarding guidance to gauge the true impact of the Western Flank downgrade on the east coast gas marketing going into a potential shortage.

More than 900 million has been wiped of its market cap, none of that wealth was transferred to COE (yet!).

So as long as COE doesn't have a reserve downgrade, what is the real value of Cooper Energy's gas assets in the Otway and Gippsland basin, in light of the Beach Energy reserve downgrade?

DYOR.