bear back of envelope, page-5

It amazes me that management and directors have appeared to be in "mind-lock" over hedging. They got their fingers burned in 2007, and raised $2b or so on burning hedges back then. However objectively recent prices have been very profitable. I think it is a shame for holders that there is so little objectivity or flexibility in the management of NCM on this matter. They have access to superior information, and should be making extra profits with that knowledge, and just accept that some bad calls were made leading up to 2007.

There are smaller competitors of Newcrest who are sitting on very significant profits from their hedgebooks. Some of these goldies will be able to collect very significant profits by closing out their hedges. (Some were forced to forward sell production by finance providers for obvious risk reduction reasons). Oh well. I think Newcrest might lose its bluechip status now, and therefore may no longer have the premium it once had.

Sorry for all of the holders who are hurting on this one. Who knows - maybe gold will suddenly bounce back - it is really a volatile commodity. Hope so. I'm short ATM.